The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its annual holiday sales forecast, predicting a moderate growth of 6% to 8% over last year, reaching a total of $942.6 billion to $960.4 billion. This projection reflects a slowdown compared to the exceptional 13.5% growth experienced in 2021 during the peak of the pandemic recovery..
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay attributed the expected moderation to several factors, including persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. He emphasized the resilience of consumers despite these challenges, with pent-up demand and a strong labor market serving as driving forces..
The NRF’s survey of consumers revealed that 56% were planning to start their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, highlighting the importance of early promotions and a seamless omnichannel experience to capture sales..
Further insights from the NRF’s forecast include:.
* Online sales are expected to grow by 10% to 15% to reach a total of $265.9 billion to $289.2 billion, continuing the surge in e-commerce adoption..
* Physical stores are expected to remain a significant channel, with sales projected to increase by 4.1% to 6.5%, reaching $676.7 billion to $711.2 billion. The NRF attributed this growth to the experiential value of in-store shopping and the opportunity for personalized service..
* Among various retail categories, electronics, home improvement, and clothing are anticipated to see the highest growth rates, while sporting goods and books are expected to experience a moderate uptick..
Despite the challenges, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz expressed optimism about the holiday season, stating, .
